I had a coffee yesterday with a vendor in Mosman who’s selling a four-bedder for north of $6m. No signboard, no portal listing, no open homes. Three buyers through last weekend, all qualified, all introduced by agents. That’s off-market in 2026, and it’s a bigger slice of Sydney’s prestige and mid-tier market than most buyers realise.

After 25 years in this game, I’ve watched off-market activity ebb and flow with confidence cycles. Right now it’s busy. Here’s what I’m seeing on the ground and what it means whether you’re buying or selling.

How much of the market is actually off-market?

There’s no perfect number because, by definition, off-market sales don’t always hit the public datasets cleanly. CoreLogic and PropTrack capture them once settled, but the listing journey is invisible. My rough estimate from talking with agents across the eastern suburbs, lower north shore and inner west: somewhere between 12% and 20% of stock above $3m is trading without a public campaign right now.

That’s not a record. We saw similar numbers through 2021. But it’s higher than the 2019 baseline, and it’s creeping into the $1.5m to $3m bracket where it didn’t used to live.

Why vendors are choosing quiet campaigns

A few patterns keep coming up in my listing presentations:

Privacy. The most common one, and not always for the reasons people assume. It’s not just celebrities. It’s executives mid-restructure, separating couples, parents who don’t want neighbours speculating about a downsize, and business owners who’d rather competitors not know they’re freeing up capital.

Speed certainty. Some vendors don’t want a six-week campaign with a public auction. They want three weeks, two or three serious buyers, done. Off-market lets you compress.

Cost. A full prestige campaign in Sydney can run $25k to $60k in vendor-paid marketing. Off-market often skips most of that. For a vendor not chasing the absolute top dollar, the saving is meaningful.

Avoiding a “stale” listing. This one’s a bit cynical but it’s real. Vendors test the market quietly first. If two or three offers come in at the right level, sold. If not, they go to a public campaign without ever appearing as a price reduction.

What buyers need to understand

If you’re a buyer right now and you’re only watching realestate.com.au and Domain, you’re missing somewhere between 10% and 20% of the available stock in your price bracket. That’s a lot.

A few practical things I’d suggest:

1. Get on multiple agent databases properly. Not just a “register interest” form. Have a real conversation. Tell them your brief, your finance position, your timeline. Agents prioritise buyers they trust.

2. Use a buyer’s agent if you’re time-poor or out-of-area. The off-market network is genuinely relationship-driven. A good buyer’s advocate has been having coffee with selling agents for years.

3. Be ready to move fast. Off-market means short windows. Pre-approval, building inspector on standby, conveyancer briefed. If you need three weeks to organise yourself after seeing the property, you’ll lose.

4. Don’t assume off-market means a discount. Sometimes it’s the opposite. With less competition the vendor’s reserve might be softer, but with no public price discovery the agent can also push harder on a single buyer who’s clearly in love.

What sellers should weigh up

I had a vendor last month convinced she wanted to go off-market. We talked through it and ended up running a quiet two-week pre-launch followed by a public campaign. The pre-launch produced two genuine offers, the campaign produced four more, and she sold $180k above the highest pre-launch offer.

That’s not always the outcome. But it illustrates the trade-off. Off-market gives you control and privacy. Public campaigns give you competitive tension. The “right” answer depends on your property, your timeline and how confident you are in the value.

A few questions I ask vendors before recommending an approach:

• Is the property unusual or comparable to recent sales? (Comparable = public campaign tends to win)
• How much do you actually need privacy versus thinking you do?
• What’s your timeline? (Under four weeks = off-market often works)
• How emotionally invested are you in maximising the headline number?

The data point most people miss

Off-market doesn’t mean unrepresented. The vendor still has an agent, the agent still has a fiduciary duty, and the sale still settles through standard conveyancing. What changes is the marketing, not the legal framework.

If you’re a buyer being shown an off-market property, the listing agent works for the vendor. Always. Get your own legal advice and consider an independent valuation, especially in the $2m+ bracket where bank valuations can lag actual market movement by three to six months.

My read for the next quarter

I think off-market activity stays elevated through winter. Interest rate uncertainty, an election cycle nobody loves, and a prestige market that’s been choppy all push vendors toward quieter campaigns. Buyers who build agent relationships now will see stock that never hits the portals.

If you want to chat through your own situation - buying or selling - I’m always happy to have a coffee. That’s still how most of the best deals in this city get done.